NFL betting guide
Key numbers, teasers, props, futures, injuries and weather.
- 1.What Are the Key Numbers in NFL Betting?
Three and seven, then 6, 10, 14 and 4. Across 7,276 NFL games since 1999, 15.1% ended by exactly 3 and 9.0% by exactly 7.
- 2.How Do NFL Teasers Work, and When Are They Worth Betting?
A teaser moves every spread in a parlay by 6 points for a worse payout. At -120 for two teams, each leg must win 73.9% of the time just to break even.
- 3.How Do NFL Player Props Work, and Why Are They Priced Differently?
Yardage and touchdown props are priced off projected usage, usually carry more margin than spreads, and void only if the player takes no snap.
- 4.How Does NFL Futures Betting Work, and What Does It Really Cost?
Futures carry more hold than weekly bets and tie up your money for months. Here is the math for Super Bowl, division, win-total and award markets.
- 5.How Does the NFL Injury Report Work, and How Does It Move Betting Lines?
Teams file practice reports three days a week, game statuses two days before a Sunday game, and inactives 90 minutes before kickoff. Lines move at every step.
- 6.How Does Weather Affect NFL Betting?
Wind is the weather that moves NFL totals; cold alone barely shows up. Books already price the forecast, so any edge is in timing.