USC Is Favored by Nearly 40 in Week 0. Would You Actually Lay It?
No. 14 USC opens as a 38.5-point favorite over San José State — the biggest number on the board. Huge favorites are a specific, and dangerous, kind of bet.
August 27, 2026 at 2:36 AM EDT
1 min read
While North Carolina and TCU open in Dublin, the other end of Week 0's spectrum is in Los Angeles: No. 14 USC is a 38.5-point favorite over San José State at the Coliseum on Saturday, the largest spread on the board, with a total of 60.5.
A number that big is a different animal from a normal spread, and it is worth understanding why before you touch it.
The trap in laying a huge number
Giant favorites ask you to trust two things at once: that the better team is much better, and that it will keep its foot on the gas long after the game is decided. The second part is where these bets go to die. Starters get pulled. Play-calling goes vanilla. A 45-10 laugher that everyone "knew" USC would win can miss a 38.5 cover by a backup-quarterback kneel-down. The favorite wins the game and loses the bet, and it feels awful.
The total tells its own story here: 60.5 is the market saying it expects a lot of USC points and not much resistance — which is the same information already baked into that 38.5.
How we'd think about it
There is no lock in a 38.5-point spread, in either direction — that is the honest framing. If you believe San José State is overmatched to the point of a running clock, the total and a first-half USC line are often cleaner expressions of that than laying the full number. If you think a Week 0 opener invites sloppiness and early substitutions, the underdog getting nearly six touchdowns is a live number. Either way, this is a spot to be small and specific, not a spot to lay 40 and assume.