Cooper Pratt's Foot Was Off the Bag, and 88 Percent of the Run-Line Money Went With It

With one out in the ninth on Friday night and the bases loaded, Liam Hicks hit a ground ball to the right side. Brice Turang threw to Cooper Pratt at second, and Pratt relayed to Jake Bauers at first. The umpires called a double play, and the Brewers had won World Series Game 1, 3-1. CBS Sports' live blog posted "FINAL: Brewers 3, Rays 1."

Tampa Bay challenged the call at second. Replay showed that Pratt's right foot was, in ESPN's words, "barely off the bag" when the ball reached his glove. The out at second was overturned, Hicks was still out at first, and the runner from third scored. Instead of three outs it was two, with runners on second and third and the score 3-2. Trevor Megill fell behind Jonny DeLuca 2-1, then struck him out, finishing with a 90 mph curveball, and the Brewers won anyway.

For anyone with a moneyline bet, nothing changed. For anyone holding the run line, the review decided the bet. At 3-1, Milwaukee -1.5 wins. At 3-2, Tampa Bay +1.5 wins. And BetMGM's numbers, reported by Covers before first pitch, show where the run-line money was.

Who was on which side

BetMGM had Milwaukee at -190 on the moneyline, with 83 percent of the handle. The Rays +1.5 was priced at -150 and took 12 percent of the run-line handle. The remaining 88 percent, by subtraction, was on Milwaukee -1.5. That position was winning until the Rays challenged.

It would be easy to call this bad luck. We don't think it was, and BetMGM's own prices show why.

The price already allowed for a one-run game

Start from BetMGM's two numbers. A -190 moneyline implies that Milwaukee wins about 65.5 percent of the time. Tampa Bay +1.5 at -150 implies about 60 percent. The Rays +1.5 cashes in two cases: Tampa Bay wins, or Milwaukee wins by exactly one run. If the Rays win about 34.5 percent of the time, then the book was implying that Milwaukee wins by exactly one run roughly a quarter of the time. That is before removing the margin, so treat it as approximate. Even so, the book was pricing a one-run Brewers win as close to a one-in-four outcome.

History supports that. From 1995 through 2013, according to ESPN Stats & Info and the Elias Sports Bureau figures Grantland's Ben Lindbergh used, 28.3 percent of regular-season games and 29.0 percent of postseason games were decided by one run. Friday's total was 6.5, and the starters were Jacob Misiorowski, whose first pitch was clocked at 103.5 mph, and Nick Martinez. In a game projected to be that low-scoring, a one-run margin is not a fluke result.

The replay is part of that distribution too. "Neighborhood play" calls became reviewable in 2016, Sports Illustrated reported at the time. Until then, middle infielders had in practice been given the force at second as long as they were near the bag. Since then, a shortstop's foot coming off the base a fraction early has been a reviewable play that can change the score. ESPN's recap made the same point: umpires used to wave this play through, and replay now measures it.

So 88 percent of the run-line money went on Milwaukee winning by two or more. That was not a bet that the replay system would fail. It was a bet that the margin would be big enough not to matter, made at a price that put a one-run Brewers win at about one game in four.

The best case for Milwaukee -1.5

The other side has a real argument. Milwaukee -1.5 pays a plus price, so bettors are being paid to accept the one-run risk. If BetMGM's run line was fairly priced, holding it was a perfectly good bet that lost by a fraction of an inch. One result proves nothing about a price. Had Pratt kept his foot on the bag, this piece would not exist and the 88 percent would have been paid.

All of that is correct, and we do not claim the -1.5 was a bad bet. We cannot judge that without BetMGM's price on it, which Covers did not report, and we will not guess it. Our narrower point is that the public did not split its money the way the prices did. The book treated a one-run Brewers win as about one game in four. The money treated it as far less likely than that. When that gap shows up, it is usually because bettors pick a team, not because they have examined the margin.

The rest of the popular card

The run line was not the only popular bet that lost. BetMGM's most-bet prop was Misiorowski over 6.5 strikeouts at -135, and he struck out three in five innings. Over 15.5 outs was also popular, and five innings is 15 outs. The over 6.5 runs took 70 percent of the total handle, and the game finished with five. The favourite won, and nearly every popular bet built on top of the favourite lost.

The book's worst outcome was elsewhere. BetMGM's largest Series MVP liability was Aaron Ashby at +5000. On Friday Ashby got five outs and stretched his postseason scoreless run to 14 innings, per ESPN. One appearance does not win an MVP. It does explain why that ticket is getting attention.

Saturday's prices

For Game 2 on Saturday, with Drew Rasmussen against Logan Henderson and first pitch at 8 p.m. ET, DraftKings has Milwaukee at -127 and Tampa Bay at +106. The Rays +1.5 is -219 and the Brewers -1.5 is +179, per Sports Illustrated's listing. The total is 6.5 again. Run the same arithmetic on those prices and the implied chance of a one-run Brewers win comes out at roughly a quarter again. The -1.5 now pays +179 because the moneyline is closer, not because the book thinks a one-run game is less likely.

"This series is going to be a dogfight," Martinez said after Game 1. Tight, low-scoring games are what these two teams produce. The run line is a bet on the final plate appearance, and in a series like this one it can come down to a replay review.